A Xerox Alto with its mouse and chorded keyset, preserved at the Computer History Museum. Photograph: Michael Hicks · CC BY 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons
Read the ending less badly
The field guide to hindsight.
Short, concrete notes on the mental tricks that turn an uncertain choice into an “obvious” miss.
Hindsight bias
Once we know the ending, the clues that fit it feel louder than the clues that did not.
Read02Survivorship bias
We keep the winner’s receipt and lose the box of nearly identical failures.
Read03Opportunity cost without the melodrama
A counterfactual value is not money that once sat in your account.
Read04How to read a founder’s recollection
First-person accounts are evidence. They are not the same thing as a signed term sheet.
Read05A checklist for counterfactual calculations
The multiplication is easy. The assumptions are the actual work.
Read06Good decisions can have bad outcomes
Decision quality and outcome quality overlap. They are not identical.
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