Luck belongs in the model
A careful choice can lose and a careless choice can win. Judging only by the ending teaches people to imitate luck rather than process.
The useful questions are what was knowable, what constraints the person had, how large the downside was and whether the decision was repeatable.
A better lesson
Read a missed opportunity for context, not confession. The point is not to become incapable of passing. It is to understand why a possibility looked different before it became history.