Claim audit
Audit the Missed Opportunities page at [PASTE URL]. List each factual claim, its cited source, whether the source is primary, and any wording that is stronger than the evidence. Do not fill gaps from memory.
12 copy-ready research prompts
Make the machine show its work.
Prompts for restoring uncertainty, auditing folklore and checking the assumptions behind a dramatic number.
Check a famous story
Make an assistant separate the recorded event from the version repeated online.
Find the contemporary record
Research [EVENT OR DECISION] using documents created at the time: filings, meeting records, official archives, contracts or contemporary reporting. Separate contemporaneous evidence from later participant recollections and internet legend. Provide direct links.
Dispute map
For [FAMOUS MISSED OPPORTUNITY], identify which facts all credible accounts agree on, which details differ, and what evidence would resolve the disagreement. Label inference explicitly.
Rebuild the decision
Put uncertainty back into a choice before judging its outcome.
Cutoff-date brief
Reconstruct the decision facing [PERSON OR COMPANY] on [DATE]. Use only information publicly available by that date. Give the strongest case for each available choice, the constraints, and the downside risks. Do not mention the later outcome until a clearly separated final section.
Missing comparison group
Find other opportunities that looked similar to [WINNER] in [YEAR] but did not succeed. Compare what could reasonably have distinguished them at the time. Avoid survivorship bias and investment advice.
Decision-quality review
Evaluate the process behind [DECISION] without using the outcome as the score. Discuss information quality, incentives, risk capacity, reversibility and alternatives. Then explain how the actual outcome changes—but does not settle—the evaluation.
Check a calculation
The arithmetic is easy. Make the assumptions visible.
Counterfactual worksheet
Build a transparent counterfactual for [OPPORTUNITY]. State the execution date and price, currency, splits, dilution, distributions, fees, taxes, financing, inflation and valuation date. If a required input is unavailable, stop and say so rather than inventing it.
Property-index check
Using [NAMED OFFICIAL PROPERTY INDEX], calculate how an index-tracking amount changes from [START DATE] to [END DATE]. Make clear this is not a house appraisal or investment return and list costs the index excludes.
Same-object collectibles check
Verify whether the sale records for [COLLECTIBLE] concern the exact same object, edition, condition and grade. Do not compare unlike examples. Identify buyer’s premium and private-sale uncertainty where relevant.
Write your own
Turn a memory into a useful, fair story without exposing anyone else.
Interview yourself
Interview me about a missed opportunity. Ask one question at a time about what I knew then, what constrained me, what I chose, and what happened. Avoid blame. Before drafting, remove private details about other people and label any unsupported estimate.
Evidence checklist
Create an evidence checklist for my story about [SHORT DESCRIPTION]. Separate documents safe to publish from documents that should remain private for moderator verification. Flag names, accusations, contact details and copyrighted material that should be removed.
Worked-out-anyway version
Help me write a concise 'Maybe It Worked Out' story. Keep the missed opportunity honest, then show the later benefit without forcing a happy ending. Do not invent dialogue or claim causation I cannot support.